NFIB Business Optimism Index came out at 88.5 yesterday.

Small businesses constitute the bedrock of the American Labor Market - as small businesses employ nearly 50% of the US workforce.

For the last 50 years, when the Optimism Index has been at the current level, the economy…

NFIB higher prices vs CPI.

Feel free to ignore the grim message from the NFIB survey of small firms, if you like. I wouldn't.

One measure of optimism among small business owners fell to the lowest level since 2012 --NFIB

h/t Yardeni Research

YARDENI: “.. Among small business owners responding to the latest #NFIB survey, .. only 7% of respondents complained about poor sales” as their top worry — “and only 4% were troubled by interest rates. We would be more concerned about the recessionary implications .. if more…

Inflation definitively back to being number one problem for small businesses per ⁦NFIB⁩ as of March

Still an incredibly low % of small businesses saying now is a good time to expand per March ⁦NFIB⁩ update

Hard to square small business sentiment with small-cap multiples … even though ⁦NFIB⁩ optimism (blue) is at its lowest since 2012, Russell 2000’s price/sales ratio (orange) is not at a decade-low

NFIB poor sales ticks higher versus the u3 unemployment rate.. that is not good.

NFIB Small Business Survey.
Single biggest problem remains inflation. This is being driven by labor costs.
Joe has created this with Government subsidies.

NFIB Small Business Optimism DOWN TO 88.5 FROM 89.4

'Poor sales' is the one #1 problem you don't want to see ticking higher in the monthly NFIB small business survey. But that's what appears to be happening lately...

NFIB small business optimism out today.

Weakest reading since 2012 (and below expectations)!

🏪 Small business optimism hits lowest level since 2012: NFIB

Employment data continues to come in very soft in the NFIB Small Business Survey.

Both of these metrics are components of the 24-variable KC Labor Market Conditions Index.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Rarely has been lower.

March ⁦NFIB⁩ Small Business Optimism deteriorated to 88.5 vs. 89.9 est. & 89.4 in prior month; confidence down to lowest since end of 2012 … hiring plans eased, sales expectations weakened, and more respondents planned to raise compensation … outlook improved marginally

Headline weakness for NFIB today *understates* the concerning picture of the US econ from small biz.

Hard data measures, which are generally align pretty well with growth conditions, are decelerating quickly. Adding concern, inflation indications are picking up again. Thread.

Poor sales starting to move up more meaningfully as top issue for ⁦NFIB⁩ small businesses … not overwhelming relative to prior downturns, but year/year trend (orange) is picking up some steam