10% probability the CDC reports at least one human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 this year:
metaculus.com/questions/2230…

🔮 Prediction resolved: Panama

Our first forecast is a success: Mulino won the election, as expected by our forecasters with 90% chance ✅

Still crazy to me that one of the earliest concrete public warnings about COVID came in late January from an anonymous forecaster on a forecasting platform.

🌍 Can we predict elections worldwide?

I am launching with Metaculus a prediction tournament for the presidential elections in 23 countries this year, from Mexico, to Ghana and the USA.

You can see the predictions in real-time 👇
And we're looking for forecasters! 👇

Forecasters out there, people want to know what to expect from H5N1!

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?

Median prediction is 20%

metaculus.com/questions/2075…

We have a news page.

(We used to have one too, but now it’s good.)

Tournament launches, new features, case studies, blog posts, and more. It’s all right here:
metaculus.com/news/

$8B in military aid for Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in China for tense talks.

What happens next? Start forecasting.

Questions on Taiwan, US-China tensions, nuclear risk & AI developed with (((James Acton))) & other subject-matter experts:
metaculus.com/project/taiwan/

🔭 Round 2 of the Bridgewater Contest is open: metaculus.com/bridgewater/

20 new questions.
Round 1 Undergrad & Open leaderboards.
$25k in prizes.
Potential opportunities at a premier asset management firm.

...not registered? Get registered — at the link above.

'The Keep Virginia Safe Tournaments were an essential tool for the Commonwealth during the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency' — Justin Crow, Virginia Department of Health

Forecasters doing good in the real world.

Top forecasters + tournament prizes: metaculus.com/questions/2227…

Announcing Deger Turan as Metaculus's new CEO!

Deger previously led AI Objectives Institute and is deeply committed to Metaculus's mission to build the epistemic infrastructure of tomorrow.

Read more: metaculus.medium.com/announcing-deg…

The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest is open! Register and predict to explore potential opportunities with Bridgewater and compete for $25,000 in prizes.

🔭 Get started: metaculus.com/bridgewater/

Here's Kiko Llaneras with an excellent piece in EL PAÍS on Trump, his legal battles, and how they've impacted polling & Metaculus's forecasts: english.elpais.com/usa/elections/…

To update your predictions & for state-level forecasts, visit our 2024 US Election Hub: metaculus.com/experiments/el…

Can the endowment effect apply to noninstrumental information? A recent study suggested it can: people were more likely to chose to learn a set of facts they'd been “endowed” with (vs those they hadn't).

Can you predict whether the study replicated?

metaculus.com/questions/2229…

Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?

Community prediction has reached a new high of 49%

metaculus.com/questions/2216…

If you're:
• new to forecasting
• looking to skill up with fast feedback
• or, a parent of young children and feel like you just 'get' #Bluey on a deeper level than other parents

—then start forecasting in the new Q2 Quarterly Cup today:
metaculus.com/tournament/qua…

On June 25th, 2522, NASA predicts a leisurely long solar eclipse.

BUT — 500 years is a long time: What if we engineer the solar system in ways that invalidate the assumptions of the prediction?

So, total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522? 👍 or 👎?
metaculus.com/questions/111/…

Register now for the 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘅 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁:
metaculus.com/bridgewater/

+$25,000 prize pool
+Explore career opportunities with Bridgewater, a premier asset management firm
+Undergrad & Open leaderboards

Begins April 16th.

What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York 'hush money' criminal trial?

metaculus.com/questions/2206…

Are you a Bryan booster? A Caplan critic?
Come predict whether he wins his current slate of bets: metaculus.com/project/caplan/