My latest piece with colleague Patrick Flynn is about Labour’s poll lead + distribution for Focaldata. Labour’s current poll lead is probably being materially overstated, but their vote efficiency has massively increased - meaning they need only a 5-7 point lead for a majority

'Reform might seem less dangerous without Nigel Farage on the candidates list, but has anything really changed?'

Me on today's Reform campaign launch and why Conservatives shouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet

newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

'Reform might seem less dangerous without Nigel Farage on the candidates list, but has anything really changed?'

Me on today's Reform campaign launch and why Conservatives shouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet

newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

'Frankly, the party whose campaign looks like it has been ambushed by this election was the one that called it.' Stephen Bush

Got my nails done last week (happens very rarely), went for sparkly and red because “it’s summer!” and I had a costume party it fitted with.

They came out horribly.

Now realising these are the nails I am stuck with all election. Sparkly red. Very professional. Damn it.

Highlight of the campaign so far! Larry the Cat

This is interesting, given he was down for Hartlepool, where he has painted his name in giant letters on the side of a building on the town's major roundabout

This is the election content I am here for

In news that will surprise absolutely no one who has been paying attention

'Cruel', 'heartbreaking', 'a terrible idea', 'a shitshow'.

This is excellent from Rachel Cunliffe on why so many Tories are furious with Rishi Sunak. newstatesman.com/politics/conse…

Interestingly I don’t think this is the case now. Modelling here at Focaldata suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” James O'Malley

The fact that £2.6m was spent on refurbishing a glitzy press room just next-door at No9 Downing Street has not gone unnoticed.

“Indoors, dry, no music” a confused comms adviser pointed out. “There are so many things you can’t predict, but ‘rain makes you wet’ really isn’t one.”

The fact that £2.6m was spent on refurbishing a glitzy press room just next-door at No9 Downing Street has not gone unnoticed.

“Indoors, dry, no music” a confused comms adviser pointed out. “There are so many things you can’t predict, but ‘rain makes you wet’ really isn’t one.”

Last week I was asked by some lovely students 'How do you decide what to write about when there's no politics happening'

Phenomenal

There are even grumblings of febrile (an overused but now very apt word) MPs so upset by the move that they are submitting letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak.

It’s hard to imagine a less united party heading into a six-week election campaign.

newstatesman.com/politics/conse…

This is a really interesting point from Jessica Elgot. One of the things the Conservatives got so wrong in 2017 and so right in 2019 was convincing voters on the 'Why Now' question.

Tory party nerds: what happens if the letters threshold is met after an election is called but before parliament is dissolved?