Cotton will come around but as we have repeatedly commented, the 2024 crop will have to be priced in 2025, most likely based on the May 2025 contract. It is just going to take that long before mills will approach 85% spinning capacity.

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Cotton planting conditions May 2, 2024
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Thus, the stage is set for May’s challenge of 96 cents. The pure technician suggests a run to 101 cents…which will not happen! Certainly, that is a rather bold comment and with any luck I will not be incorrect, but rather just plain wrong.

We still hold a 96 cent high but do note the charts can accommodate the above mentioned 101 cent mark. Nevertheless, the speculators have hit the long side of cotton with as much gusto as I have ever seen, and they have more than considerable cash reserves to pump into the market

The new crop December contract climbed to some 84.50 cents, failing to take out the 85 cent level, but will likely do so within the next 30-40 days. Pricing models suggest 90 cents is in the works for the December contract. Begin pricing at 85 cents, hard comment!

However, with an increase in planted acres, coupled with the significant demand woes that still face the market, the December contract may fall short of that. The 85 cent level should be viewed as the initial pricing level, either using put options or by price fixations.

Additionally, mills have waited too long to do their pricing and will now have to pay the piper. mill fixations yet to be made (buying futures), will find mills trading on the side of speculators, an exceedingly demanding situation for mills as they will be chasing the market.

Economic woes continue as a major demand limitation. Real mortgage rates are at a historic high. Inflation will continue to be a major battle as the only job growth is coming in the explosion in government jobs. Private sector jobs are in a free fall.

Cotton Marketing Weekly
2-23-24
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Cotton Marketing Weekly
2-8-2024
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