Our own growth surprises index (which uses 66 indicators) and inflation surprises index (33 indicators) are trying to tell us something. Typically they move in synch, but so far this year they have moved in opposite directions.

Inflation surprises also saw a U-turn in early 23’

Just launched our NLP Fedspeak Index on Bloomberg Terminal today. Our Fedspeak Index combines Bloomberg's timely Fed reporting+labels trained on my read of Fedspeak. It flagged for us Powell's Dec Dovish pivot. Right now its readings is similar to March 2019-4 months before rate cuts.

A followup on our new NLP Fedspeak Index ('BECO MODELS <GO>). A question we ask it: What does it take to get to to March cut? We decompose it into 2 components: data surprise, and Fed communication independent of moves in data. Here's what we need in those to trigger March cut.

Eco data surprises matter for markets!
Check out our new #macro - #finance tool which links #economic #data surprises to the #US #yield #curve . You can run your own surprise scenarios for growth and inflation and get the effect on #US #bond #yield s.
Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg Economics

Our nowcasts are updated daily and accessible to Clients via the  #bloombergterminal  under ECAN<GO>. Andrej Sokol Scott Johnson Bhargavi Sakthivel Ana Beatriz Galvao Ana Luís Andrade Michael McDonough Michael Denicola #inflation #spain #economics #ecb Zoe Schneeweiss Alonso Soto Joya Bloomberg Economics

A property crash in China remains a risk, though it's not our team's base case. Our new scenario modeling tool for China shows how a collapse might play out, with a ~6-ppt drag on growth, taking into account the likely policy response. {ECAN<GO>} Via Ana Beatriz Galvao, et al

US CPI Day breaking - a few hours to go. Consensus sees March drop to 5.1% from 6%, my US colleagues agree. BE nowcast is 5.2%. But core looks firmer (~5.6%), and per Anna Wong, et al, good news may be fleeting, with oil prices up again. Follow on terminal: ECAN, TLIV, BECO

What has caused the drop in the US dollar since early November? Our new model of exchange-rate drivers suggests expectations of a less hawkish Fed and more risk appetite from investors are the main drivers. Always up-to-date on ECAN <GO>!

Markets dissented from Powell's hawkish FOMC message.

Bloomberg Economics' model shows expectations of a more dovish Fed driving the fall in yields.

Björn van Roye Anna Wong Bloomberg Economics

10y-Treasury yields declined more than 80 basis points from early November. Our asset-price decomposition model attributes this mainly to market expectations of a less hawkish Fed and a looming recession. It's now available in real-time on ECAN <GO> via the Bloomberg Terminal.

Our Nowcast app is now available live on the Bloomberg Terminal via ECAN <GO>. You can find daily updates of CPI and core CPI nowcasts prints incl. news decompositions. For the January CPI print our nowcast predicts 6.2%, slightly lower than the Cleveland Fed. #inflation #CPI

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe Rudi Bachmann Martino Ricci Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel) Bhargavi Sakthivel Scott Johnson Scott A. Brave michele lenza Domenico Giannone Juan Antolin-Diaz John Leer Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & @IEbusiness Reade Pickert Owen Minde Michael Denicola Michael McDonough Andrea P Ferrero 🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇦 Bloomberg Economics tom keene

Emerging markets are under pressure from rising debt, slowing growth, and soaring yields

The consolation: A 1980s-style debt crisis looks unlikely

My Bloomberg New Economy piece, with Ana Beatriz Galvao and Scott Johnson

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Geopolitical shocks will continue to upend the global economy. Here’s a way to make sense of them (via Tom Orlik & Scott Johnson) trib.al/Smw7rcu

How long can China keep its $11.6 trillion local debt market shielded from the global bond rout? trib.al/6K4xZvp

BREAKING NEWS:
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig “for research on banks and financial crises.”

#NobelPrize